If we were sitting down for coffee right now, the first thing I’d bring up is yesterday’s news from the Federal Reserve. On March 18, 2026, the Fed officially announced it is holding its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. 

The headlines this morning are heavy. As the conflict in Iran enters its third week, the technical reality is setting in. Since the initial strikes on February 28, the world has watched the Strait of Hormuz—the artery for 20% of global oil—effectively move toward a standstill (Source: CBS News). With Brent crude touching $119/bbl this week and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering near $100 after a massive spike (Source: AP News), the "quiet" inflation we enjoyed in early 2026 is under threat.